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Daí em diante, o resultado oficial ficou sempre dentro da faixa (no fim, quando a faixa encolhe a centésimos de ponto, a menos de 0,05 ponto dela). A contagem, que depende da ordem de chegada dos boletins, mostrou o 22 à frente até 49% das seções apuradas.","erro_margem":"Quanto cada grupo deu a mais (ou a menos) para a margem do 13 sobre o 22, comparado com o que a simulação supunha, em milhões de votos. Somando os grupos: +10,6 milhões. Linha fina: faixa de 90% da estimativa (442.491 seções com os dois turnos).","erro_taxas":"Para cada grupo do 1º turno, a divisão entre 13, 22, branco/nulo e abstenção no 2º turno: a barra clara é o que a simulação supunha; a escura, o que os boletins indicam.","nota_historia":"Todas as fatias são do finalista de esquerda, entre os dois finalistas. <b>1º turno</b>: a fatia dele entre os dois no 1º turno. <b>Previsão</b>: o método do site sem o próprio ano, com as matrizes de transferência médias das outras eleições (2026 nunca entra na média). <b>Erro</b>: resultado menos previsão, em pontos. <b>Aprovação</b>: ótimo/bom menos ruim/péssimo do governo (os dois entre parênteses). <b>Rejeição</b>: esquerda / direita, em %. Rejeição e aprovação: Datafolha, com fonte de cada número em <a href=\"../dados/pesquisas_historicas.json\">pesquisas_historicas.json</a>. A rejeição de 2002, 2006 e 2010 não foi encontrada com fonte.","nota_modelos":"Erro médio em pontos percentuais da fatia de cada finalista. Modelos com rejeição só podem ser avaliados em 2014, 2018 e 2022 (três anos), e o de aprovação em cinco. Com tão poucos anos, diferenças de menos de 1 ponto entre linhas não querem dizer muito.","governadores":"Cada ponto é um 2º turno para governador de 2002 a 2022 (73 disputas). Em dourado, as 32 em que um dos finalistas era o governador tentando a reeleição, sempre do ponto de vista dele. Acima da diagonal, terminou melhor do que no 1º turno. Descontado o 1º turno, o efeito estimado de concorrer à reeleição é de −1,1 ponto (faixa de 90%: −2,6 a +0,5)."},"resumo":["<b>O resultado:</b> 13 com 51,79%, 22 com 48,21%. A simulação dava 52,7% ao 22 e as pesquisas da última semana, 51,0% em média. As duas erraram para o mesmo lado.","<b>A projeção ao vivo</b> passou a indicar o 13 com 2% das seções apuradas e manteve o resultado dentro da faixa até o fim, enquanto a contagem ainda mostrava o 22 à frente até 49% apurado.","<b>Onde a simulação errou:</b> três grupos explicam quase tudo. Quem votou 13 no 1º turno repetiu o voto mais do que o modelo supunha (+3,6 milhões na margem), e quem votou branco, nulo ou não foi votar no 1º turno foi muito mais para o 13 (+6,1 milhões). O eleitor de centro também (+1,3).","<b>Rejeição:</b> o \"teto\" pela rejeição (quem não rejeita cada candidato) teria dado 50,0% ao 13, mais perto do resultado que a simulação e as pesquisas, e acertou bem os três anos anteriores com dado. Mas são só três anos.","<b>Continuidade de governo:</b> há um sinal fraco. Em 3 das 5 eleições passadas com candidato do governo, ele foi melhor do que o previsto (média de +1,6 ponto, puxada por 2006), e em 2026 também (+3,4). Mas, usado como ajuste fixo, piora a previsão do passado; a aprovação do governo piora mais; e nos 32 2º turnos estaduais com governador tentando a reeleição o efeito foi de −1,1 ponto.","<b>A lição principal é sobre a incerteza:</b> prevendo cada eleição sem ela, o método de transferências erra 2,9 pontos em média. A simulação usou erro de ±1,2 ponto; com o erro histórico (3,6 pontos), a chance do 22 teria sido de cerca de 78%, não 96%."],"licoes":["<b>1. Usar a incerteza que a história mostra.</b> O erro de ±1,2 ponto da simulação vinha só da variação entre 2014, 2018 e 2022. Prevendo cada uma das seis eleições sem ela, o erro típico (raiz do erro quadrático médio) é de 3,6 pontos. Com esse erro, a mesma simulação daria ao 22 cerca de 78% de chance: favorito, mas longe de certo.","<b>2. Combinar com as pesquisas.</b> De 2002 a 2022, a média das últimas pesquisas errou 1,4 ponto em média, menos que as transferências (2,9). Em 2026 as pesquisas também erraram (−2,7 pontos para o 13), mas menos que a simulação (−4,6). A simulação deste site ignorava as pesquisas de propósito, para ser uma referência independente; o histórico mostra que essa independência custa precisão. Uma próxima versão deveria partir do nível nacional das pesquisas e usar as transferências para distribuir o voto pelo território e para a projeção da noite.","<b>3. Rejeição vale ser acompanhada, com cautela.</b> O teto pela rejeição é simples (cada candidato fica com quem não o rejeita) e acertou 2014, 2018 e 2022 com erro médio de 1,1 ponto; para 2026, dava 50,0% ao 13. É um bom sinal, mas três anos não bastam para virar regra, e as pesquisas medem rejeição de formas diferentes.","<b>4. Continuidade de governo: acompanhar, mas não como peso fixo.</b> O candidato do governo superou a previsão em 3 de 5 eleições passadas e em 2026, mas o tamanho varia muito (de −2,7 a +7,3 pontos), um ajuste fixo piora a previsão do passado e a aprovação do governo não ajuda a dizer quando o efeito aparece. Nos governadores, quem tenta a reeleição não ganha mais do que o 1º turno indica. Nos dados de 2026, o que mais pesou foi o comportamento de quem não tinha escolhido candidato no 1º turno.","<b>5. Usar mais do que três eleições.</b> Com as matrizes das seis eleições em vez de três, a mesma simulação daria 48,4% ao 13, em vez de 47,2%. Ainda erraria o lado, mas por menos."]}